I don’t remember where I saw it, who tweeted it, or what website it came from, but while I was doom-scrolling through Twitter a few days ago, someone I followed tweeted a statement very similar to this: if the Padres miss the postseason, it’ll be the biggest disappointment of the 2021 MLB season.
Is it, though? I think Yankees missing the postseason would be more disappointing, but that’s just me.
Would it be surprising that they miss the postseason? Maybe, considering how good they were earlier this year and how much money and draft capital they’ve doled out over the last few years. But, would it really be THAT surprising or disappointing? Maybe not, especially if you read all the articles about the clubhouse dysfunction on this team. Not only has there been dysfunction, but the Padres are a small-market team trying to make a splash in a very big-market division.
As a long-suffering Diamondbacks fan, I can sympathize with Padres fans; I cannot even count how many seasons have gone by where good D-Backs teams underperformed. Parts of it were managerial problems or underperforming talent, but honestly, so much of the Diamondbacks’ woes over the years has been simply a matter of the division in which they play. Not only are they (and similarly, the Padres) hamstrung by a smaller budget, they have to play 38 games a year against big-market titans who can afford the best players, the best scouts and the best analytical minds. How can you compete with organizations such as the San Francisco Giants and the Los Angeles Dodgers, who are in two huge markets with well-established fan bases? The God’s honest truth is that they can’t.
We’ve seen the Diamondbacks try to keep up, whether they sign my favorite pitcher ever Zack Greinke to a preposterous contract, or make extremely ill-advised trades, such as when they sent current Braves star Dansby Swanson to Atlanta for the injury-doomed Shelby Miller. They’ve tried bringing in “big” talent over the years, like Richie Sexton, only to have it blow up in their face. They also don’t have the money to keep their big stars, such as Paul Goldschmidt or Justin Upton, so they either can’t extend them or they are forced to trade them to save coin. It just doesn’t work. The only time this worked for the D-Backs was arguably the 2001 team, and that year they won the World Series. In recent years, the Padres have tried a similar approach, making trades like crazy and signing big-name free agents. Which is all well and good until it blows up in your face. Or, in this case, their dugout:
In addition to trying to get the best players, the Padres management have adopted a win-now mentality, and anything less means heads will roll. They’ve had THREE managers since 2014, which is wild. Their current manager, Jayce Tingler, has never managed a day in his life. His staff is allegedly full of “difficult” personalities, which clashes with the large personalities of the players. In short, this bring-in-big-stars-and-trust-the-analytics approach hasn’t worked.
But what will work? What will work when you are competing against the bottomless money pit that is the Dodgers and the extremely well-run organization that is the Giants? Over the last two decades, these two teams have owned the division titles:
2020 - Dodgers (won WS this year)
2019 - Dodgers (lost WS this year)
2018 - Dodgers
2017 - Dodgers
2016 - Dodgers
2015 - Dodgers
2014 - Dodgers (Giants won WS this year)
2013 - Dodgers
2012 - Giants (won WS this year)
2011 - Diamondbacks
2010 - Giants (won WS this year)
2009 - Dodgers
2008 - Dodgers
2007 - Diamondbacks
2006 - Padres
2005 - Padres
2004 - Dodgers
2003 - Giants
2002 - Diamondbacks
Now, clearly the Dodgers are the big winners here. They haven’t been good the entire twenty years, but they’ve been a model franchise for the last ten. And though the Giants haven’t won as many division titles, they’ve won three World Series titles since 2010, compared to the Dodgers one title. So how can these small market teams compete with that? And y’all we haven’t even talked about the Rockies…
I don’t know how you can shift the power balance in the NL West. All reigns have to come to an end, so we know the Dodgers won’t always been the kings, but they are set up for long-term success. They have great scouts and lots of money, which means they can retain the fabulous prospects they draft. The Giants also have a history of drafting well and maintaining a remarkable clubhouse culture that yields great results. Big-market teams will always have a slight advantage because of finances, but winning starts from the top-down. You need a management system in place that facilitates winning and properly allocates resources.
So, circling back to the original point: would the Padres missing the postseason be 2021’s biggest disappointment? No, not even a little bit. Which is sad, because they had been so fun to watch and easy to root for. But at the end of the day, with the internal structure they have and the division in which they play, those poor Padres really never stood a chance.
Other Tidbits:
- Yankees starter Luis Severino made his first appearance of the season last night, after over 700+ days of being on the IL. I was surprisingly emotional listening to the crowd chant “Sevy! Sevy! Sevy!” as he immediately struck out the first batter he faced. It warmed my cold, depressed heart.
- The Manning broadcast was back on Monday, and yes it was just as glorious as I was hoping. Rob Gronkowski was predictably hilarious, and we got some fun time with former Colts punter Pat McAfee and QB legend Brett Favre. The only downside was my boyfriend’s voice in the back of my head chanting “Favor” instead of “Favre” the entire time Favre was onscreen.
- Ben Simmons has said he won’t report to training camp for the 76ers, and while I could/might write a whole post on the subject, my reaction can be boiled down to: LOL
- My heart is so heavy seeing the horrors the Haitian refugees are facing in Texas and y’all, we can do better. As a country, we should do better. I’m looking into ways I can help these folks, and I encourage you to do the same.
- Lastly, please enjoy this video of a kid breaking down how sucky the Jets are: